The fuel paradox: prices falling, tickets still expensive
News that will frustrate many travelers: despite the drop in fuel prices following the US-Iran peace agreement, airfares will not come down in the short term. This is what the CEO of United Airlines stated, announcing the intention to recoup 100% of the additional costs incurred during the peak of jet fuel prices — and to maintain current fares for several more months.
But how is this possible? And above all, what does it mean for those who need to buy a plane ticket in the coming months? Let’s analyze the situation in detail.
Why don’t fares drop even when fuel costs less?
The way the airline market works is more complex than it seems. Even when operating costs decrease, airlines do not immediately pass the savings on to passengers. Here are the main reasons:
- Limited capacity: the number of available flights has not grown enough to meet demand. With fewer seats available, airlines have no incentive to cut prices.
- Recovering past losses: airlines have suffered enormous increases in energy costs over recent quarters and are now trying to rebalance their finances.
- Still strong demand: global air traffic remains robust, especially on transatlantic and intercontinental routes, which reduces competitive price pressure.
- Fuel hedging: many airlines purchase fuel in advance through futures contracts, meaning current savings may not yet be reflected in their operating budgets.
In short: the airline market responds to cost decreases with months of delay, while it responds to increases almost immediately.
The practical impact on travelers
For those flying from major hubs — whether on European or intercontinental routes — the situation translates into fares that will remain above the historical average at least until autumn 2026. The most affected routes are:
- Flights to the United States: operated by airlines such as United Airlines via hubs like Newark (EWR) and Chicago O’Hare (ORD), with departures from Rome Fiumicino (FCO) and Milan Malpensa (MXP).
- High-demand European routes: routes such as London Heathrow (LHR), Paris Charles de Gaulle (CDG) and Amsterdam Schiphol (AMS) remain expensive due to strong summer demand.
- Mediterranean tourist destinations: despite the short distances, seasonality keeps prices high on many low-cost routes.
Practical tips to save money despite the unfavorable market
Here are some concrete strategies to limit the impact of high fares on your wallet:
1. Book well in advance
On intercontinental routes, booking 3–6 months in advance still offers the most competitive prices. Waiting until the last minute, in a low-capacity market, is a risky strategy.
2. Be flexible with dates
Avoid peak travel days (Fridays and Sundays). Tuesdays and Wednesdays are historically the cheapest days to fly.
3. Consider alternative airports
Departing from Milan Bergamo (BGY) instead of Milan Malpensa (MXP), or from Rome Ciampino (CIA) instead of Rome Fiumicino (FCO), can make a significant difference to the final price.
4. Monitor loyalty programs
With high fares, points and miles are relatively more valuable. Consider redeeming accumulated rewards for intercontinental flights, where the savings are greatest.
5. Evaluate alternative airlines
If United doesn’t offer competitive prices, consider other options on transatlantic routes such as Lufthansa, Air France or long-haul low-cost carriers.
What to expect in the coming months
Industry analysts expect a easing of fares could arrive towards the end of 2026, when:
- New aircraft deliveries (especially Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A321neo) will increase available capacity.
- The drop in fuel prices will be fully reflected in airline financial statements.
- Peak summer demand will subside.
However, experts warn that fares are unlikely to return to pre-2022 levels: the structural costs of the industry have increased permanently, driven by wage inflation, maintenance, and environmental sustainability adjustments.
Conclusion: staying informed is the first step
In a market where airlines actively manage prices and availability, the informed traveler has an advantage. Monitoring prices, understanding airline policies, and assessing the risk of your flight are increasingly essential practices.
Want to know if your next flight is at risk? Check your flight risk on FlightGuard.
