Free Tool
Flight Cancellation
Risk Checker
Will your flight be cancelled? Check the risk before you fly. FlightGuard analyzes airline cancellation rates, weather, strikes, and 6 more factors in real time.
How to check flight cancellation risk
Enter your flight number
Type your flight code. Works with all airlines — Ryanair, EasyJet, BA, Lufthansa, and hundreds more.
Select the date
Choose your departure date. The analysis uses date-specific weather, strikes, and operational data.
See the cancellation risk
Get a risk score from 0 to 100. Scores above 35 indicate high risk. Set up a free alert for automatic updates.
Understanding flight cancellation risk
Flight cancellations affect millions of passengers every year. While you can't prevent a cancellation, you can assess the likelihood and prepare accordingly. FlightGuard helps you do exactly that — by analyzing 9 real-time data sources to give you a risk score before you even get to the airport.
Why do airlines cancel flights?
Airlines cancel flights for several reasons:
- Severe weather — Storms, heavy snow, dense fog, or extreme wind can make operations impossible. This is the most common cause of mass cancellations.
- Strikes — Airline staff, airport workers, or ATC controllers. European aviation sees hundreds of strike days per year. FlightGuard tracks active and planned strikes.
- Technical issues — Aircraft mechanical problems or safety concerns. These are harder to predict but airlines with older fleets or lower maintenance budgets tend to have higher rates.
- Crew shortages — Pilot or cabin crew unavailability due to duty time limits, illness, or scheduling issues.
- Commercial decisions — Low demand flights may be cancelled and passengers consolidated onto other services. More common in off-peak seasons.
Which airlines cancel the most flights?
Cancellation rates vary significantly between airlines. FlightGuard tracks airline punctuality data including on-time performance and cancellation rates. You can check any airline's statistics on our airline pages, or simply enter your specific flight number for a tailored risk assessment.
Your rights when a flight is cancelled
Under EU regulation 261/2004, if your flight is cancelled:
- Rebooking or refund — The airline must offer an alternative flight or a full refund
- Compensation — EUR 250-600 depending on distance, unless cancelled 14+ days before departure or due to "extraordinary circumstances" (severe weather, security threats)
- Care and assistance — Meals, drinks, hotel if overnight, and communication
This applies to all flights departing from EU/EEA airports, and flights arriving at EU/EEA airports on EU-based airlines.
Should you get travel insurance?
EU261 covers a lot, but not everything. Travel insurance can help with:
- Non-refundable hotel bookings and activities
- Missed connections on separate tickets
- Cancellations that fall under "extraordinary circumstances"
- Trips outside the EU where 261/2004 doesn't apply
Check your flight's risk score on FlightGuard to help decide whether insurance is worth it for your specific trip.
Frequently asked questions about flight cancellations
How do I check the cancellation risk for my flight?
Enter your flight number on FlightGuard, select the date, and get an instant risk score from 0 to 100. The score factors in airline cancellation rates, weather, strikes, and 6 other data sources. A score of 35+ indicates high cancellation risk.
Will my flight be cancelled?
No tool can guarantee a prediction, but FlightGuard helps you assess the probability. Flights with risk scores above 35 have a significantly higher chance of delay or cancellation. Set up a free alert to be notified if conditions change.
What are the most common reasons for flight cancellations?
The top causes of flight cancellations are: severe weather (storms, heavy snow, fog), airline staff strikes, technical/mechanical issues, air traffic control restrictions, and low demand (operational decisions by the airline). FlightGuard monitors all external factors in real time.
Am I entitled to compensation if my flight is cancelled?
Under EU regulation 261/2004, if your flight is cancelled less than 14 days before departure, you may be entitled to compensation of EUR 250-600 depending on distance. This applies to flights departing from EU airports or arriving at EU airports on EU-based airlines. The airline must also offer rebooking or a refund.
Should I buy travel insurance against flight cancellation?
Travel insurance can cover costs that EU261 doesn't, such as hotel bookings, connecting flights on different tickets, or cancellations more than 14 days before departure. It's especially useful for expensive trips or connecting itineraries. Check FlightGuard's risk score to help decide if insurance is worth it for your specific flight.
How far in advance are flights typically cancelled?
Airlines may cancel flights from weeks in advance (schedule changes, low demand) to just hours before departure (weather, technical issues, crew shortages). Last-minute cancellations are harder to predict but often correlate with severe weather or strikes. FlightGuard helps you spot these risks early.
Continue reading
Related tools and guides for your trip.
Will my flight be delayed?
Free real-time tool to check your flight delay risk before you travel.
Flight delay predictor
Free forecasting tool analysing 9 factors. Live ATFM delay rankings.
Flight cancelled: what to do now
Step-by-step checklist for refunds and assistance.
Ryanair refund for cancelled flight
Complete 2026 guide to EU261 compensation.
Check your flight cancellation risk
Free, instant, no signup required. Enter your flight number and see the risk.