Free Tool
Flight Delay
Predictor
Find out if your flight is at risk of delay or cancellation — before you get to the airport. Powered by 9 real-time data sources, updated every 15 minutes.
How the flight delay predictor works
Enter your flight number
Type your flight code (e.g. FR5121, BA553, IB3172) into the search bar. FlightGuard recognizes all major airlines worldwide.
Choose the departure date
Select when you're flying. The predictor uses date-specific weather forecasts, NOTAMs, and operational data for the most accurate analysis.
Get your risk score
Receive an instant risk score from 0 to 100 with an AI-powered explanation. Set up a free email alert to be notified if the risk level changes before departure.
9 factors analyzed in real time
FlightGuard goes beyond simple tracking. Our algorithm weighs 9 independent data sources to predict the likelihood of delay or cancellation.
Weather
Wind speed, precipitation, visibility, and severe weather forecasts at origin and destination airports.
ATC Delays
Real-time air traffic control restrictions and ATFM delays from EUROCONTROL.
Airline Punctuality
Historical on-time performance and cancellation rates for your specific airline.
Strikes
Active or upcoming airline, airport, and ATC staff strikes across Europe.
Fuel Prices
Jet fuel price trends that can affect airline operations and route viability.
NOTAMs
Notices to Air Missions affecting airports or airspace along your route.
Recent Trends
How your specific flight has performed in the last few weeks.
Geopolitical
Conflict zones, airspace closures, and diplomatic events that may affect routes.
Historical Data
Long-term delay and cancellation patterns for the route and carrier.
What is a flight delay predictor?
A flight delay predictor is a tool that estimates the probability of your flight being delayed or cancelled before it happens. Unlike flight trackers (such as FlightAware or Flightradar24) that show you what's happening in real time, a delay predictor analyzes multiple data sources to forecast what is likely to happen in the coming days.
FlightGuard's flight delay prediction algorithm weighs 9 independent factors: weather forecasts, air traffic control restrictions, airline on-time performance, active strikes, fuel prices, NOTAMs (Notices to Air Missions), recent flight trends, geopolitical events, and historical data. Each factor contributes to a final risk score from 0 to 100, where lower scores mean lower risk.
When should you check?
We recommend checking your flight risk at least 2-3 days before departure and again the day before. Weather forecasts become significantly more accurate within 72 hours, and operational data (strikes, NOTAMs) is most reliable close to the date. FlightGuard updates all data every 15 minutes, so the closer you get to your flight, the more precise the prediction becomes.
How is this different from flight tracking?
FlightAware and Flightradar24 are excellent tools for tracking flights in real time — they show you where your plane is, whether it's on time, and what gate it's at. But they can't tell you what will happen tomorrow or next week.
FlightGuard fills that gap: it's a predictive tool that helps you plan ahead. Use FlightGuard before your trip to assess risk and set up alerts, then use a flight tracker on the day of travel. They work best together.
What can you do with the results?
If FlightGuard shows a high risk score (35+), consider:
- Arriving at the airport earlier than usual
- Having a backup plan (alternative flights, flexible booking)
- Checking your EU261 rights for compensation in case of delay or cancellation
- Setting up a free FlightGuard alert to monitor changes
Airports with highest average delays
Based on ATFM delay data. Check any flight from these airports with FlightGuard.
| Airport | City | Avg Delay | Risk Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lisbon Humberto Delgado Airport (LIS) | Lisbon | 681.3 min | 23.6/100 |
| Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport (MAD) | Madrid | 263.2 min | 21.2/100 |
| Warsaw Chopin Airport (WAW) | Warsaw | 258.6 min | 18.1/100 |
| Brussels Airport (BRU) | Zaventem | 207.7 min | 19.1/100 |
| Rome–Fiumicino Leonardo da Vinci International Airport (FCO) | Rome | 202.0 min | 26/100 |
| Copenhagen Kastrup Airport (CPH) | Copenhagen | 177.9 min | 24.2/100 |
| Milan Malpensa International Airport (MXP) | Ferno (VA) | 174.3 min | 28.9/100 |
| Il Caravaggio International Airport (BGY) | Orio al Serio (BG) | 174.1 min | 21.8/100 |
| Zürich Airport (ZRH) | Zurich | 155.7 min | 21.8/100 |
| Gran Canaria Airport (LPA) | Gran Canaria Island | 107.8 min | 24.7/100 |
Frequently asked questions
How accurate is the flight delay predictor?
FlightGuard analyzes 9 real-time factors including weather forecasts, ATC delays, NOTAMs, airline punctuality, strikes, fuel prices, geopolitical events, recent trends, and historical data. The prediction becomes more accurate as you get closer to the departure date, since weather and operational data improve.
Is the flight delay predictor free?
Yes, FlightGuard is completely free to use. Enter your flight number, select the date, and get an instant risk score from 0 to 100 with an AI-powered explanation. You can also set up free email alerts to be notified if the risk level changes.
How far in advance can I predict flight delays?
You can check your flight risk up to 16 days in advance. Weather forecasts and operational data are most reliable within 3-5 days of departure, so we recommend checking at least 2-3 days before and again the day before your flight.
What factors cause flight delays?
The most common causes of flight delays are adverse weather (wind, rain, snow, fog), air traffic control restrictions, airline operational issues, staff strikes, technical problems, and airspace congestion. FlightGuard monitors all of these factors in real time.
How is FlightGuard different from FlightAware or Flightradar24?
FlightAware and Flightradar24 track flights in real time — they tell you what is happening right now. FlightGuard predicts what is likely to happen before your flight departs, using a risk score based on 9 factors. They complement each other: use FlightGuard before departure to assess risk, and flight trackers on the day of travel.
What does the risk score mean?
The risk score ranges from 0 to 100. A score below 15 means low risk (flight likely on time), 15-34 means medium risk (some uncertainty, keep an eye on it), and 35 or above means high risk (high probability of delay or cancellation). The score is updated every 15 minutes as new data comes in.
Continue reading
Related tools and guides for your trip.
Will my flight be delayed?
Free real-time tool to check your flight delay risk before you travel.
Flight cancellation risk
Estimate cancellation probability and understand your EU261 rights.
Top 10 European airports for delays
Ranking of the worst-performing hubs.
Most punctual low-cost airlines
Which budget carrier arrives on time.
Check your flight now
Enter your flight number and get an instant risk score. Free, no signup required.